Managing risk is at the core of managing any financial organization. Risk measurement and quantitative tools are critical aids for supporting risk management, but quantitative tools alone are no substitute for judgment, wisdom, and knowledge. Managers within a financial organization must be, before anything else, risk managers in the true sense of managing the risks that the firm faces.

The definitive guide to quantifying risk vs. return--fully updated to reveal the newest, most effective innovations in financial risk management since the 2008 financial crisis Written for risk professionals and non-risk professionals alike, this easy-to-understand guide helps you meet the increasingly insistent demand to make sophisticated assessments of companies' risk exposure. It provides the latest methods for:\n\nMeasuring and transferring credit risk \nIncreasing risk-management transparency \nImplementing an organization-wide Enterprise risk Management (ERM) approach\n\nMichel Crouhy is head of research and development at NATIXIS and the founder and president of the NATIXIS Foundation for Quantitative Research.Dan Galai is the Abe Gray Professor of Finance and Business Administration at the School of Business Administration, the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.Robert Mark is the Founding Chief Executive Officer of Black Diamond Risk which provides corporate governance, risk management consulting, risk software tools, and transaction services.

An essential guide to the calibrated risk analysis approach The Failure of Risk Management takes a close look at misused and misapplied basic analysis methods and shows how some of the most popular "risk management" methods are no better than astrology! Using examples from the 2008 credit crisis, natural disasters, outsourcing to China, engineering disasters, and more, Hubbard reveals critical flaws in risk management methods&;and shows how all of these problems can be fixed. The solutions involve combinations of scientifically proven and frequently used methods from nuclear power, exploratory oil, and other areas of business and government. Finally, Hubbard explains how new forms of collaboration across all industries and government can improve risk management in every field. Douglas W. Hubbard (Glen Ellyn, IL) is the inventor of Applied Information Economics (AIE) and the author of Wiley's How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business (978-0-470-11012-6), the #1 bestseller in business math on Amazon. He has applied innovative risk assessment and risk management methods in government and corporations since 1994. "Doug Hubbard, a recognized expert among experts in the field of risk management, covers the entire spectrum of risk management in this invaluable guide. There are specific value-added take aways in each chapter that are sure to enrich all readers including IT, business management, students, and academics alike"&;Peter Julian, former chief-information officer of the New York Metro Transit Authority. President of Alliance Group consulting "In his trademark style, Doug asks the tough questions on risk management. A must-read not only for analysts, but also for the executive who is making critical business decisions."&;Jim Franklin, VP Enterprise Performance Management and General Manager, Crystal Ball Global Business Unit, Oracle Corporation.

Using the factor analysis of information risk (FAIR) methodology developed over ten years and adopted by corporations worldwide, Measuring and Managing Information Risk provides a proven and credible framework for understanding, measuring, and analyzing information risk of any size or complexity. Intended for organizations that need to either build a risk management program from the ground up or strengthen an existing one, this book provides a unique and fresh perspective on how to do a basic quantitative risk analysis. Covering such key areas as risk theory, risk calculation, scenario modeling, and communicating risk within the organization, Measuring and Managing Information Risk helps managers make better business decisions by understanding their organizational risk.

We've all been there: stuck in a cycle of what-ifs, plagued by indecision, paralyzed by the fear of getting it wrong. Nobody wants to live a life of constant overthinking, but it doesn't feel like something we can choose to stop doing. It feels like something we're wired to do, something we just can't escape. But is it?Anne Bogel's answer is no. Not only can you overcome negative thought patterns that are repetitive, unhealthy, and unhelpful, you can replace them with positive thought patterns that will bring more peace, joy, and love into your life. In Don't Overthink It, you'll find actionable strategies that can make an immediate and lasting difference in how you deal with questions both small--Should I buy these flowers?--and large--What am I doing with my life? More than a book about making good decisions, Don't Overthink It offers you a framework for making choices you'll be comfortable with, using an appropriate amount of energy, freeing you to focus on all the other stuff that matters in life.

State of the art risk management techniques and practices―supplemented with interactive analytics All too often risk management books focus on risk measurement details without taking a broader view. Quantitative Risk Management delivers a synthesis of common sense management together with the cutting-edge tools of modern theory. This book presents a road map for tactical and strategic decision making designed to control risk and capitalize on opportunities. Most provocatively it challenges the conventional wisdom that "risk management" is or ever should be delegated to a separate department. Good managers have always known that managing risk is central to a financial firm and must be the responsibility of anyone who contributes to the profit of the firm. A guide to risk management for financial firms and managers in the post-crisis world, Quantitative Risk Management updates the techniques and tools used to measure and monitor risk. These are often mathematical and specialized, but the ideas are simple. The book starts with how we think about risk and uncertainty, then turns to a practical explanation of how risk is measured in today's complex financial markets. \nCovers everything from risk measures, probability, and regulatory issues to portfolio risk analytics and reporting Includes interactive graphs and computer code for portfolio risk and analytics Explains why tactical and strategic decisions must be made at every level of the firm and portfolio \nProviding the models, tools, and techniques firms need to build the best risk management practices, Quantitative Risk Management is an essential volume from an experienced manager and quantitative analyst.

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

A top risk management practitioner addresses the essential aspects of modern financial risk management In the Second Edition of Financial Risk Management + Website, market risk expert Steve Allen offers an insider's view of this discipline and covers the strategies, principles, and measurement techniques necessary to manage and measure financial risk. Fully revised to reflect today's dynamic environment and the lessons to be learned from the 2008 global financial crisis, this reliable resource provides a comprehensive overview of the entire field of risk management. Allen explores real-world issues such as proper mark-to-market valuation of trading positions and determination of needed reserves against valuation uncertainty, the structuring of limits to control risk taking, and a review of mathematical models and how they can contribute to risk control. Along the way, he shares valuable lessons that will help to develop an intuitive feel for market risk measurement and reporting. \nPresents key insights on how risks can be isolated, quantified, and managed from a top risk management practitioner Offers up-to-date examples of managing market and credit risk Provides an overview and comparison of the various derivative instruments and their use in risk hedging Companion Website contains supplementary materials that allow you to continue to learn in a hands-on fashion long after closing the book \nFocusing on the management of those risks that can be successfully quantified, the Second Edition of Financial Risk Management + Websiteis the definitive source for managing market and credit risk.

The latest groundbreaking tome from Tim Ferriss, the #1 New York Times best-selling author of The 4-Hour Workweek.From the author:“For the last two years, I’ve interviewed more than 200 world-class performers for my podcast, The Tim Ferriss Show. The guests range from super celebs (Jamie Foxx, Arnold Schwarzenegger, etc.) and athletes (icons of powerlifting, gymnastics, surfing, etc.) to legendary Special Operations commanders and black-market biochemists. For most of my guests, it’s the first time they’ve agreed to a two-to-three-hour interview. This unusual depth has helped make The Tim Ferriss Show the first business/interview podcast to pass 100 million downloads.“This book contains the distilled tools, tactics, and ‘inside baseball’ you won’t find anywhere else. It also includes new tips from past guests, and life lessons from new ‘guests’ you haven’t met.“What makes the show different is a relentless focus on actionable details. This is reflected in the questions. For example: What do these people do in the first sixty minutes of each morning? What do their workout routines look like, and why? What books have they gifted most to other people? What are the biggest wastes of time for novices in their field? What supplements do they take on a daily basis?“I don’t view myself as an interviewer. I view myself as an experimenter. If I can’t test something and replicate results in the messy reality of everyday life, I’m not interested.“Everything within these pages has been vetted, explored, and applied to my own life in some fashion. I’ve used dozens of the tactics and philosophies in high-stakes negotiations, high-risk environments, or large business dealings. The lessons have made me millions of dollars and saved me years of wasted effort and frustration.“I created this book, my ultimate notebook of high-leverage tools, for myself. It’s changed my life, and I hope the same for you.”

An updated edition of the international bestseller that distills into a single volume the fifty best decision-making models.Every day, we face the same questions: How do I make the right decision? How can I work more efficiently? And, on a more personal level, what do I want?This updated edition of the international bestseller distills into a single volume the fifty best decision-making models used in MBA courses, and elsewhere, that will help you tackle these important questions. In minutes you can become conversant with:The Long Tail • The Maslow Pyramids • SWOT Analysis • The Rubber Band Model • The Prisoner's Dilemma • Cognitive Dissonance • The Eisenhower Matrix • Conflict Resolution • Flow • The Personal Potential Trap • and many more.Stylish and compact, this little book is a powerful asset. Whether you need to plan a presentation, assess someone's business idea, or get to know yourself better, this unique guide―bursting with useful visual tools―will help you simplify any problem and make the best decision. 58 illustrations

Winner of the Pulitzer Prize • New York Times Bestseller • Over Two Million Copies Sold“One of the most significant projects embarked upon by any intellectual of our generation” (Gregg Easterbrook, New York Times), Guns, Germs, and Steel presents a groundbreaking, unified narrative of human history.Why did Eurasians conquer, displace, or decimate Native Americans, Australians, and Africans, instead of the reverse? In this “artful, informative, and delightful” (William H. McNeill, New York Review of Books) book, a classic of our time, evolutionary biologist Jared Diamond dismantles racist theories of human history by revealing the environmental factors actually responsible for its broadest patterns.The story begins 13,000 years ago, when Stone Age hunter-gatherers constituted the entire human population. Around that time, the developmental paths of human societies on different continents began to diverge greatly. Early domestication of wild plants and animals in the Fertile Crescent, China, Mesoamerica, the Andes, and other areas gave peoples of those regions a head start at a new way of life. But the localized origins of farming and herding proved to be only part of the explanation for their differing fates. The unequal rates at which food production spread from those initial centers were influenced by other features of climate and geography, including the disparate sizes, locations, and even shapes of the continents. Only societies that moved away from the hunter-gatherer stage went on to develop writing, technology, government, and organized religions as well as deadly germs and potent weapons of war. It was those societies, adventuring on sea and land, that invaded others, decimating native inhabitants through slaughter and the spread of disease.A major landmark in our understanding of human societies, Guns, Germs, and Steel chronicles the way in which the modern world, and its inequalities, came to be.

Take the risk out of financial risk management Written by bestselling author and past winner of the GARP Award's Risk Manager of the Year, Aaron Brown, Financial Risk Management For Dummies offers thorough and accessible guidance on successfully managing and controlling financial risk within your company. Through easy-to-follow instruction, you'll find out how to manage risk, firstly by understanding it, and then by taking control of it. Plus, you'll discover how to measure and value financial risk, set limits, stop losses, control drawdowns and hedge bets. Financial risk management uses financial instruments to manage exposure to risk within firms, large and small―particularly credit risk and market risk. From managing and measuring risk to working in financial institutions and knowing how to communicate risk to your company and clients, Financial Risk Management For Dummies makes it easy to make sense of the management of risk when working in various different financial institutions and concludes by covering the topic of how to communicate risk ― how to report it properly and how to deal with and comply with all of the regulations. \nCovers managing risk and working as a financial risk manager Provides everything you need to know about measuring financial risk Walks you through working in financial institutions Demonstrates how to communicate risk \nIf you work in the financial sector and want to make financial risk management your mission, you've come to the right place!

The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.\n Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.\n Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.

Life is all about decision-making. Some choices lead to joy and become celebrated accomplishments, while others leave us filled with regret and disappointment. Your decisions determine the direction and quality of your life, and every decision you make becomes a permanent part of your story. They are the steering wheel of your life. In Better Decisions, Fewer Regrets, Andy Stanley helps readers to learn from experience and stop making bad decisions. He introduces five questions that provide a decision-making filter to help you make better decisions and live with fewer regrets: Am I being honest with myself ... really What story do I want to tell Is there a tension that deserves my attention What is the wise thing to do What does love require of me Nobody plans to complicate their life with a bad decision. Yet too many people don't plan not to. These five questions provide a simple safeguard to ensure a life with fewer regrets. And by incorporating these five questions into the rhythm of your life you'll have the tools you need to write a fabulous story. This is the story of your life. You only get to write one. Make it a good one. Make it a story worth telling.

*Major New York Times Bestseller*More than 2.6 million copies sold*One of The New York Times Book Review's ten best books of the year*Selected by The Wall Street Journal as one of the best nonfiction books of the year*Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient*Daniel Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's best-selling The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our MindsIn his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, world-famous psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think.System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation―each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions.Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives―and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Topping bestseller lists for almost ten years, Thinking, Fast and Slow is a contemporary classic, an essential book that has changed the lives of millions of readers.

The most complete, up to date guide to risk management in finance Risk Management and Financial Institutions explains all aspects of financial risk and financial institution regulation, helping readers better understand the financial markets and potential dangers. This new fourth edition has been updated to reflect the major developments in the industry, including the finalization of Basel III, the fundamental review of the trading book, SEFs, CCPs, and the new rules affecting derivatives markets. There are new chapters on enterprise risk management and scenario analysis. Readers learn the different types of risk, how and where they appear in different types of institutions, and how the regulatory structure of each institution affects risk management practices. Comprehensive ancillary materials include software, practice questions, and all necessary teaching supplements, facilitating more complete understanding and providing an ultimate learning resource. All financial professionals need a thorough background in risk and the interlacing connections between financial institutions to better understand the market, defend against systemic dangers, and perform their jobs. This book provides a complete picture of the risk management industry and practice, with the most up to date information. \nUnderstand how risk affects different types of financial institutions Learn the different types of risk and how they are managed Study the most current regulatory issues that deal with risk \nRisk management is paramount with the dangers inherent in the financial system, and a deep understanding is essential for anyone working in the finance industry; today, risk management is part of everyone's job. For complete information and comprehensive coverage of the latest industry issues and practices, Risk Management and Financial Institutions is an informative, authoritative guide.

Wall Street Journal bestseller!Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions.Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.

Risk control, capital allocation, and realistic derivative pricing and hedging are critical concerns for major financial institutions and individual traders alike. Events from the collapse of Lehman Brothers to the Greek sovereign debt crisis demonstrate the urgent and abiding need for statistical tools adequate to measure and anticipate the amplitude of potential swings in the financial markets—from ordinary stock price and interest rate moves, to defaults, to those increasingly frequent "rare events" fashionably called black swan events. Yet many on Wall Street continue to rely on standard models based on artificially simplified assumptions that can lead to systematic (and sometimes catastrophic) underestimation of real risks. \nIn Practical Methods of Financial Engineering and Risk Management, Dr. Rupak Chatterjee— former director of the multi-asset quantitative research group at Citi—introduces finance professionals and advanced students to the latest concepts, tools, valuation techniques, and analytic measures being deployed by the more discerning and responsive Wall Street practitioners, on all operational scales from day trading to institutional strategy, to model and analyze more faithfully the real behavior and risk exposure of financial markets in the cold light of the post-2008 realities. Until one masters this modern skill set, one cannot allocate risk capital properly, price and hedge derivative securities realistically, or risk-manage positions from the multiple perspectives of market risk, credit risk, counterparty risk, and systemic risk.\nThe book assumes a working knowledge of calculus, statistics, and Excel, but it teaches techniques from statistical analysis, probability, and stochastic processes sufficient to enable the reader to calibrate probability distributions and create the simulations that are used on Wall Street to valuate various financial instruments correctly, model the risk dimensions of trading strategies, and perform the numerically intensive analysis of risk measures required by various regulatory agencies.

A Financial Times Book of the Month pick for April!Is it worth swimming in shark-infested waters to surf a 50-foot, career-record wave?Is it riskier to make an action movie or a horror movie?Should sex workers forfeit 50 percent of their income for added security or take a chance and keep the extra money?Most people wouldn't expect an economist to have an answer to these questions--or to other questions of daily life, such as who to date or how early to leave for the airport. But those people haven't met Allison Schrager, an economist and award-winning journalist who has spent her career examining how people manage risk in their lives and careers.Whether we realize it or not, we all take risks large and small every day. Even the most cautious among us cannot opt out--the question is always which risks to take, not whether to take them at all. What most of us don't know is how to measure those risks and maximize the chances of getting what we want out of life.In An Economist Walks into a Brothel, Schrager equips readers with five principles for dealing with risk, principles used by some of the world's most interesting risk takers. For instance, she interviews a professional poker player about how to stay rational when the stakes are high, a paparazzo in Manhattan about how to spot different kinds of risk, horse breeders in Kentucky about how to diversify risk and minimize losses, and a war general who led troops in Iraq about how to prepare for what we don't see coming.When you start to look at risky decisions through Schrager's new framework, you can increase the upside to any situation and better mitigate the downside.